Starting Point: From Narrative to Numbers
In December 2024, a simple model portfolio was launched. At first, the goal was clear. It was to test a theme-based investment idea. For this reason, ChatGPT supported the outlook.
First, the focus was on real use. In other words, it was not about theory. Then, attention moved to results. So, performance had to be easy to measure.
As a result, tracking became simple. Also, the results were easy to compare. Finally, the approach stayed simple. Overall, it remained straightforward and easy to follow.
- Five equities, equally weighted
- CHF ~5,000 per position
- Buy-and-hold, no rebalancing
- Unhedged FX exposure, reflecting a typical Swiss private client experience
- Reference currency: CHF
The stocks were selected purely based on the 2025 outlook themes:
AI, healthcare innovation, electrification, infrastructure, and resilient US consumption.
The holdings:
Amazon, ASML, Eli Lilly, Siemens, NVIDIA
Portfolio Performance at a Glance
As of 13.12.2025, the portfolio shows the following aggregate result:
- Total invested: CHF 23’835.94
- Current market value: CHF 27’493.82
- Total profit (incl. dividends): CHF 3’814.17
- Overall performance: +13.87%
In absolute terms, this is a solid double-digit return over roughly one year, achieved without leverage, derivatives, or tactical trading.
What Drove Performance?
Clear Winners
- ASML (+29.97%)
The strongest contributor. Semiconductor capex linked to AI and advanced computing remained resilient despite macro noise. ASML once again demonstrated why monopolistic positioning matters. - Siemens (+22.26%)
Benefited from infrastructure spending, electrification, and digital industrial solutions – exactly as anticipated in the outlook. - NVIDIA (+20.88%)
AI demand continued to surprise on the upside. Despite initial valuation concerns, earnings momentum justified its inclusion. - Eli Lilly (+17.29%)
Healthcare innovation delivered as expected. Obesity and diabetes treatments translated into strong revenue visibility and share price appreciation.
The Drag
- Amazon (-13.34%)
The only negative contributor. FX effects (USD weakness vs CHF) and margin concerns weighed on returns. Operationally solid, but the timing was unfavourable.
This highlights an important point. Even strong businesses can underperform over short horizons. In particular, this risk increases when currency exposure is left unhedged.
The Role of FX – An Underestimated Factor
Leaving FX unhedged was intentional. The result:
- USD positions (Amazon, NVIDIA, Eli Lilly) were adversely affected by CHF strength.
- EUR exposure was relatively neutral.
Without FX headwinds, headline equity performance would have been higher. This reinforces a key client lesson:
Currency risk is real, persistent, and often underestimated.
Was ChatGPT “Good Guidance”?
The honest answer: ChatGPT was not a stock picker – but it was a useful structuring tool.
What worked well:
- Identification of dominant, durable themes (AI, healthcare, infrastructure)
- Selection of high-quality, globally relevant companies
- Avoidance of speculative or narrative-only trades
What it did not do:
- Time entry points
- Manage FX exposure
- Optimise valuations or tactical allocation
In other words, ChatGPT helped frame the “what” and “why” – not the “when” or “how much”.
The Bigger Picture
A ~14% return in CHF, with full FX exposure and no active management, compares favourably to many balanced portfolios over the same period. More importantly, the portfolio behaved precisely as a thematic equity allocation should:
- Concentrated but diversified across drivers
- Volatile at times, but fundamentally coherent
- Driven by earnings and structural trends, not hype
This makes the experiment valuable not because it “beat the market”, but because it validated a disciplined, theme-led investment process.
Final Thoughts
So, was ChatGPT a good guide?
👉 As an idea generator and narrative synthesiser: yes.
👉 As a standalone investment decision-maker: clearly not.
When used with care, it can support research. In addition, it can challenge assumptions. It can also help explain strategy.
As a result, this portfolio shows a clear point. Human judgment still matters. Portfolio structure remains key. Risk awareness is also essential.
And that, perhaps, is the most useful conclusion of all.
Again, this model portfolio and commentary are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk.
